Was Iran's Downing of RQ-170 Related to the Malware Infection at Creech AFB?

The Washington Post has reported that Iran's cyber warfare unit took over the controls of a Lockheed Martin RQ-170 Sentinel stealth drone flying over Eastern Iran and landed it with minimal damage. As of this writing, the U.S. Air Force hasn't yet confirmed or denied the attack. I've left a message with the on-call PA officer at Creech Air Force Base, which is the home of the 432d Wing which flies RQ-170 Sentinels according to this factsheet.

Creech Air Force Base, as you may recall, suffered a malware infection of its Reaper and Predator Ground Control Stations last October. After Noah Shachtman broke the story, the Air Force issued a press release claiming that the malware was a simple "credential stealer" and not a "keylogger", which is a distinction without a difference as I pointed out here. Approximately one and a half months after the Air Force issued that statement, Iran claims to have successfully compromised the flying operations of one of its drones - possibly flown out of the same Air Force base.

Iran's Cyber Warfare Capabilities

Note: The following assessment comes from chapter 16 of the 2nd edition of Inside Cyber Warfare, due out this month:

In 2010 the Iranian Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) set up its first official cyber warfare division.Since then, its budget and focus has indicated the intention of growing these cyber warfare capabilities. Education is considered a top priority in the strategy, with increased attention to computer engineering-specific cyber security programs. The IRGC budget on cyber capabilities is estimated to be US$76 million. The IRGC’s cyber warfare capabilities are believed to include the following weapons: compromised counterfeit computer software,wireless data communications jammers, computer viruses and worms, cyber data collection exploitation, computer and network reconnaissance, and embedded Trojan time bombs.
The cyber personnel force is estimated to be 2,400, with an additional 1,200 in reserves or at the militia level. In June 2011 Iran announced that the Khatam al-Anbiya Base, which is tasked with protecting Iranian cyberspace, is now capable to counter any cyber attack from abroad, a claim that will likely be tested soon given the volatile nature of cyberspace. In August 2011 Iran challenged the United States and Israel, stating that they are ready to prove themselves with their cyber warfare capabilities. Should the Iranian cyber army be provoked, Iran would combat these operations with their own “very strong” defensive capabilities. 

In my opinion, the U.S. Air Force needs to respond to this claim by the Iranians quickly and authoritatively because its lackluster conduct regarding the initial infection found at Creech makes this claim by Iran more believable, not less.

UPDATE (1121 04DEC11): CNN quotes a U.S. official confirming that an operator lost flight control of an RQ-170 Sentinel over Western Afghanistan (which borders Eastern Iran).

UPDATE (1807 04DEC11): Western sources are reporting that the RQ-170 drone was shot down however FARS quoted an Iranian military official saying that it was taken down via electronic means "with electronic war units" and with minimal damage which makes this a cyber attack. The Al-Jazeera story is here.